Orange County Real Estate
Six Predictions for 2014
Well its that time of year to break out the crystal ball and try to predict what we can expect of Orange County real estate in 2014. Now obviously nobody can see into the future but based on what we are seeing every day, the current market trends and the overall state of the market here are our six predictions for Orange County Real Estate in 2014
1) Actual Appreciation in the 5-7% range – what we mean by that is your Orange County home worth 500k On January 1st should be worth in the 525 – 535k range by the end of 2014. Real Estate statistics are tricky and often don’t paint an accurate picture for an individual home. So when you see headlines screaming of 20% appreciation that doesn’t always translate to your home being worth 20% more than it was a year ago. The price type calculated (average or median), volume differentials between the time periods compared, and the way the figure is calculated (price per square foot, average sales price, average sales price excluding one or more factors etc.) all effect what the final number is. But realistically and practically for you the Orange County home owner we anticipate at the end of the year you should expect to see your typical Orange County home worth 5 – 7% more than it was at the beginning of the year.
2) How the year will unfold – right now prices are on a flat trend line and we expect that to continue as the year begins with a slight uptick as the first quarter ends. The second quarter ought to bring increased volume and along with it continued upward prices trends, the third quarter should be the busiest of all with volume and prices appreciation hitting highs. The fourth quarter will quit down and prices will level off. So if you are a buyer of Orange County Real Estate the first quarter is a great time to strike, if you’re a seller of Orange County real estate than the third quarter ought to get you the best return.
3) Volume should be as good or better than this year. There is still a strong demand for Orange County real estate and with some further overall economic stability we should see more people migrating here and embracing homeownership. We expect to loose many of the institutional investors who were sweeping up single-family homes as 2013 began but those buyers should be replaced with traditional homebuyers.
4) Lending standards will adjust – new rules effect mortgage lending starting next year, some good some not so good for many Orange County real estate buyers. What we expect is the regrowth of the private mortgage market to capitalize on the reduced risk presented by our current upward trending market, which will allow more people to participate in Orange County real estate.
5) The buyer pool will trend younger – this will be slight but noticeable and a combination of more people in their 20s seizing the opportunity to become home owners, more older people relocating out of area upon retirement and many middle aged people just recovering from the economic collapse of 2008. These three factors combined should put a much younger face on our Orange County real estate buyer profile.
6) Investment Scams will Flourish – anytime real estate is riding positive momentum we get a wave of Orange County real estate scams that pop up promising high fixed returns and peddling zero risk propaganda. Orange County real estate can be a great investment, especially if you control the investment and have the time and ability to actively manage your investment. But turning over your hard earned money to people who are good at fund raising and not so good at the rest of the process can be a nightmare. Be very careful with whom you invest, we even had a local politician’s family who was running what the courts have declared a scam, so even if everything seems right be cautious. It you want to be an Orange County real estate investor its usually safest to just buy a rental property and manage your investment than when your ready buy a second property and grow your portfolio from there and avoid the fast talking, sharply dressed, plastic smile promising you the sky with no possible downside.
Well there you have it our predictions for Orange County real estate in 2014. Here is hoping we all have an amazing 2014! If you have any questions feel free to contact me I am here to help.
Thanks and HAPPY NEW YEAR!